Potential Security Implications of Environmental Change in Central Asia

There exists a general consensus that future climate change has the potential to severely impact fragile regions on the planet, especially the semi-arid to arid zones [1]. If adaptation strategies are absent and institutions are not in place for mitigation, economies will suffer and intraand interstate conflicts over the allocation of scarce resources will potentially ensue. These developments, together with growing population pressures, have the potential to increase social tensions and cause a dramatic deterioration of the security situation at watershed scales and beyond [2] (see Figure 1). Central Asia, in particular, is one of the regions vulnerable to environmental change.